央行恢复买债，期债企稳回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market, significantly boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in the new round of Sino-US trade consultations has significantly alleviated the market's concerns about trade policy uncertainties. Looking ahead, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of broad fiscal policies still require a low-interest rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to focus on medium- and short-term bond purchases, which may lead to a continued decline in short-term interest rates and potentially drive down long-term interest rates. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the potential suppression of long-term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) rose by 1.45%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.21% respectively. The trading volumes were 594,400, 377,500, 330,800, and 190,300 contracts respectively. The prices of the top two CTD bonds of each contract also increased [13]. - Treasury Bond Futures Market Review: The main contracts of 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures all rose this week. The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased [16][22][30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Key News Review: The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open-market Treasury bond trading, and study various policy measures. Five departments issued a plan to promote the improvement of urban commerce. The results of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, with the US canceling a 10% tariff and suspending some measures. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance sheet reduction in December [33][34]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10-year, 30-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures narrowed [40][49][53]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract increased significantly [67]. - Interest Rate Changes: The 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, while the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates rose. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the 1 - 7Y yields falling by about 5 - 11bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields falling by about 5 and 6bp to 1.79% and 2.15% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened slightly [69][74]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank conducted 206.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 90 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 70 billion yuan in MLF maturities and 86.72 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 140.08 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly [79]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, bonds worth 114.2609 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 77.9563 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 36.3046 billion yuan [83]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0880, up 48 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated upward, and the VIX index remained stable. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestic and Overseas Fundamentals: In China, the manufacturing PMI declined in October, while the non - manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range. The GDP growth rate was stable but slowed down. The economy shows a pattern of "strong production, weak demand" and "strong external demand, weak domestic demand". In the US, inflation was lower than expected, the labor market recovered moderately, the Fed cut interest rates, and the end of balance sheet reduction was announced [101]. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, considering the potential decline in short - term interest rates and the need for a low - interest rate environment, while being vigilant about the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite [102].