Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum market show that electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand, while alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. Cast aluminum alloy may face a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control. Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [6][7][9][73]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply of alumina in the raw material end is still excessive, and the alumina price is approaching the cost line. The smelters have good profits and positive production sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the improvement of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic fields. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - Alumina: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect the import of domestic bauxite, and the bauxite price remains firm. The supply is still excessive, but may be forced to converge as the price approaches the cost line. The demand is stable due to the high - level operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of alumina [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply growth may slow down, while the demand is supported by the sales strategies of the automobile and motorcycle industries. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of cast aluminum [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Trends: As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,295 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from October 24; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,870 US dollars/ton, up 0.17% from October 24. The price of the alumina contract weakened, with the price at 2,770 yuan/ton on October 31, down 0.54% from October 24. The price of the cast aluminum contract strengthened, with the closing price of the main contract at 20,805 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.48% from October 24 [12][16]. - Ratio and Spread: As of October 31, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.4, down 0.45 from October 24. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from October 24; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,710 yuan/ton, down 785 yuan/ton from October 24 [13][24]. - Spot Markets: The spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions weakened, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) increased. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots strengthened, with a price of 21,300 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.8% from October 24, and the spot discount was 10 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week [27][30]. - Position and Open Interest: As of October 31, 2025, the open interest of Shanghai aluminum was 621,737 lots, up 2.4% from October 24, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 9,239 lots from October 24 [19]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of October 30 - 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 3.8%, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.89%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 1.23%. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.45%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24% [33]. - Bauxite: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine ports decreased by 100,000 tons month - on - month [36]. - Scrap Aluminum: The quotation of broken scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 1.1% year - on - year [42]. - Alumina: In September 2025, the output of alumina increased by 8.7% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 36.43% month - on - month and increased by 61.68% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year [45]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In September 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by 80.13% year - on - year, and the output increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity increased by 0.16% month - on - month and 2.11% year - on - year, the total capacity was flat month - on - month and increased by 0.52% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.27% [48][52]. - Aluminum Products: In September 2025, the output of aluminum products decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 35.4% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 7.3% year - on - year [56]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In September 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10% year - on - year, and the built - in capacity increased by 15.96% year - on - year [59]. - Aluminum Alloy: In September 2025, the output of aluminum alloy increased by 17.1% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 13.21% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 2.06% year - on - year [62]. - Real Estate: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27. From January to September 2024, the new construction area decreased by 19% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 14.96% year - on - year [65]. - Infrastructure and Automobile: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, automobile sales increased by 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased by 17.15% year - on - year [68]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [73].
铝类市场周报：供给略增需求提振，铝类或将有所支撑-20251031
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-31 08:41