瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber market offers rose, while domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly following the market. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [8]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the dry content of latex decreased rapidly due to large temperature differences between day and night, and the purchase price of processing plants remained stable. In Hainan, rainfall affected tapping operations, resulting in limited raw material availability for local rubber processing plants. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction, but the reduction rate in general trade warehouses has narrowed [8]. - Overseas standard rubber arrivals at Qingdao continued to decline, leading to a slight reduction in bonded warehouse inventory. Mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing increased as expected, but tire factories' purchases were mostly on a wait - and - see basis. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers adjusted slightly. Downstream buyers had a wait - and - see attitude and replenished based on rigid demand [8]. - Market Outlook: Global tapping season continues. Yunnan has temperature - related issues, and Hainan has rainfall problems. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are decreasing, and mixed rubber arrivals are increasing. Tire factory capacity utilization decreased slightly and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 1.63% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 2.2% week - on - week [13]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber [14][16]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 31, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 70, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 30, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 121,670 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, an increase of 2,217 tons from last week [26]. - Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of October 30, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - 20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of October 30, the 20 - number rubber basis was 746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand: As of October 30, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 53.3 (+0.9) Thai baht/kg. As of October 31, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 44.4 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of October 30, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - Import Volume: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [44]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [48]. - Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [51]. - Tire Exports: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Trucks): In September 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.