瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short - term [6] - The domestic urea market rose first and then fell this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - The recovery of previously overhauled plants has increased domestic urea production. There are no planned plant shutdowns next week, and 5 - 6 shut - down plants may resume production, so the probability of increased production is high [7] - Agricultural demand continues to be released, and some reserve demand may follow up. Industrial demand, especially in the compound fertilizer sector, has led to an increase in the utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity. The autumn fertilizer orders are nearing completion, and the compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly [7] - The release of suppressed demand and the follow - up of reserve demand have increased new orders and shipments of urea plants. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week and are expected to fluctuate little in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1600 - 1650 range in the short - term [6] - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then fell. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Market outlook: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural and industrial demand is being released, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable in the short term [7] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures market - The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.04% [13] - As of October 31, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 78 [15] - As of October 30, there were 0 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 5407 from the previous week [23] - Spot market - As of October 30, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [29] - As of October 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 375 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33] - As of October 30, the urea basis was - 27 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous week [37] 3.3. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [40] - As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [40] - Industry - As of October 30, China's urea production was 131.53 tons, up 3.74 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.32%, up 2.29% from the previous period [43] - As of October 30, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons, a decline of 47.62%. As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.66% [46] - In September 2025, urea exports were 1.3712 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%. The average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [49] - Downstream - As of October 30, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, up 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity was 49.98% on average, up 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [52]