合成橡胶市场周报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,350 - 10,900 yuan in the short - term [7] - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to be weak this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,400 to 11,350 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton [8] - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly this week. Most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,350 - 10,900 yuan in the short - term [7] - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market was weak, and the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was lowered by 200 yuan/ton. The increase in raw material exports and the continuous decline of foreign market prices led to a rapid increase in bearish sentiment [8] - Market outlook: The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, and the inventory of trading enterprises may increase slightly. The price difference between private and state - owned resources will continue to exist, and downstream procurement may still be waiting for price drops [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 4.81% [12] - As of October 31, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 10 [19] - As of October 30, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 3,010 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week [22] - Spot Market - As of October 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week [28] - As of October 30, the basis of butadiene rubber was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream Situation - As of October 30, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 572.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton from last week [31] - As of October 31, the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.06%, an increase of 1.44% from last week; the port inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons from last week [34] - Industry Middle - stream - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month [37] - As of October 30, the weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.95%, a decrease of 6.5% from last week [37] - As of October 30, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 421 yuan/ton, an increase of 625 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of October 31, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,880 tons, a decrease of 2,290 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,200 tons, a decrease of 1,450 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 3,680 tons, a decrease of 840 tons from last week [44] - Downstream Situation - As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [47] - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [50]