玉米类市场周报：现货价格偏弱调整，期价维持低位震荡-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both corn and corn starch, the report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [8][12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - This week, corn futures fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The market is still cautious as the USDA has not released the crop progress report. With the advancement of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the estimated US corn yield per acre this year is lower than the USDA's previous forecast, and the expectation of a China-US trade agreement boosts the US corn market. In China, the corn yield per acre in the Northeast has increased significantly due to favorable climate during the sowing period. Farmers are willing to sell, but traders are slow to build inventories, and drying towers operate on a "buy-and-sell" basis. Feed enterprises have not replenished their inventories on a large scale, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downward as new grain arrives. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the pressure to sell high-moisture grain has eased with the drop in temperature. As the price of new grain has fallen, farmers are more reluctant to sell, resulting in a slight decrease in the volume of grain on the market. Traders are cautious about building inventories. Large feed enterprises still have some wheat stocks and are mainly on the sidelines regarding new corn purchases. Most enterprises adjust their purchase prices flexibly according to the volume of grain arriving at the factory gates. The corn futures price has generally been fluctuating at a low level recently [9] Corn Starch - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from last week. As the volume of new-season corn on the market gradually increases, the supply pressure of raw material corn intensifies, and the cost support for corn starch weakens. The substitution advantage of tapioca starch still exists, continuing to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. However, the industry's operating rate has been lower than the same period in previous years, and enterprises have had good sales recently, resulting in a slight decline in inventory. As of October 29, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.128 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year-on-year increase of 36.89%. The starch market has been fluctuating in tandem with the corn market [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - This week, the January contract of corn futures fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with a total open interest of 931,151 lots, an increase of 42,659 lots from last week. The January contract of corn starch futures fluctuated narrowly, with a total open interest of 211,483 lots, a decrease of 126 lots from last week [19] Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - This week, the net position of the top 20 in corn futures was -79,110, compared with -86,514 last week, indicating a slight decrease in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was -54,866, compared with -53,333 last week, showing little change in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 63,966 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,504 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,242.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the January active contract of corn futures and the average spot price was +112 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2,750 yuan/ton. The spot price was relatively stable this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [37][42] Inter - Month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was -29 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was -8 yuan/ton, at a medium level compared to the same period [48] Futures Spread - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 310 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 614 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan/ton compared to last week [58] Substitute Spread - As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,487 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,242.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 244.84 yuan/ton. In the 44th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 291 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 7 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Corn Supply Side - Inventory at North and South Ports: As of October 24, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port totaled 270,000 tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 337,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 945,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons; the shipping volume at the four northern ports that week was 888,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,000 tons [52] - Monthly Import Volume: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons compared to the same period last year (313,095.10 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20,404.55 tons compared to 36,157.71 tons last month [71] - Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days: As of October 30, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.10 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [75] Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads compared to the same period last year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads compared to the previous quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 90,000 heads compared to the previous quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [79] - Breeding Profit: As of October 24, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was -185.68 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -289.07 yuan/head [83] - Processing Profit: As of October 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 105 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was -213 yuan/ton in Henan, -379 yuan/ton in Jilin, and -196 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88] 3.4 Industry Chain Situation - Corn Starch Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 29, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.827 million tons, an increase of 7.82% [92] - Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory: From October 23 to October 29, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from last week; the national corn starch output for the week was 304,500 tons, an increase of 16,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 58.86%, an increase of 3.25% from last week. As of October 29, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.128 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - As of October 31, the main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated at a low level, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 9.15%, a decrease of 0.83% from 9.98% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated downward and was at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [99]