工业硅多晶硅市场周报：成本上行抬升期价，需求走弱压制期价-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose 2.02% and polysilicon rose 7.85%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend due to increased production cuts in the dry season, while the rise in polysilicon was driven by market sentiment from an interview report about GCL's photovoltaic consortium. [4] - For industrial silicon, in the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, increasing production costs and leading to some enterprises suspending production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing. In the demand side, the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable, but the demand from polysilicon is uncertain. Cost provides support for prices, while high inventory restricts upward price movement. [4] - For polysilicon, the supply will remain high in the short - term, but production costs will increase as the dry season approaches in the southwest. The demand is weak due to over - capacity in the battery cell segment and slow growth in domestic new photovoltaic installations. [4] - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 8800 - 9400 with a stop - loss range of 8600 - 9500, and the main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 53000 - 57000 with a stop - loss range of 51000 - 58000. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon rose 2.02% and polysilicon rose 7.85% this week. The increase in industrial silicon was due to dry - season production cuts, and the increase in polysilicon was driven by market sentiment. [4] - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply will decrease in the dry season, demand from polysilicon is uncertain, and cost supports prices while high inventory restricts price increases. For polysilicon, supply will remain high in the short - term, costs will rise, and demand is weak. [4] - Operation Suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the 8800 - 9400 range with a stop - loss of 8600 - 9500, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the 53000 - 57000 range with a stop - loss of 51000 - 58000. [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: The spot price increased, and the basis decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the spot price was 9450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 295 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 8.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.44%. [11][13][20] - Polysilicon: Both the spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of October 30, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, up 20 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2650 yuan/gram. [15][17] 3. Industry Situation - Industrial Silicon Raw Materials and Costs: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained flat. As the dry season approaches, electricity prices in the southwest increased, raising costs, while electricity prices in the northwest remained stable at 0.35 yuan/kWh. [22][24] - Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts: As of October 30, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 47410 lots, a decrease of 1328 lots from the previous period. [29] - Organic Silicon: This week, the production and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the weekly production was 4.43 tons, a decrease of 3.7%, and the operating rate was 68.56%, a decrease of 2.13%. The cost, spot price, and profit remained stable, and future production is expected to remain flat. [31][36][38] - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the price was 21100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 7.35 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to stabilize. [44][50] - Silicon Wafers and Battery Cells: The price of silicon wafers increased, and the price of battery cells remained flat. As of October 30, 2025, the price of silicon wafers was 1.53 yuan/piece, up 0.05 yuan/piece from last week, and the price of battery cells was 0.30 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be positive. [52][54] - Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory: This week, affected by electricity prices, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 30, 2025, the profit was 9130 yuan/ton, the average cost was 43630 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 28.26 tons. [59][64]