Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-31 08:58Group 1: Report Summary - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - In the first half of October 2025, the sugar cane crushing and sugar production progress in the central - southern region of Brazil slowed down significantly. As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 0.89% year - on - year [5] - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is expected to decrease month - on - month. Due to news about syrups and premixes, there is support at the lower level, but the loose supply - demand situation still pressures the sugar market. In the short term, sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - Future factors to watch include domestic production and sales, and new - season production forecasts [6] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market International Market - The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.1 cents per pound, down 0.62 cents per pound from last week [15] Domestic Futures Market - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was - 57,848 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 7,530 [23] - The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was + 70 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 257 yuan/ton [28] Domestic Spot Market - As of October 31, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,710 yuan/ton [34] - This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,790 yuan/ton, up 176 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 509 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,512 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 432 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton from last week [40] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply Side - As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [44][56] - As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [47] - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [51] Demand Side - As of the end of September 2025, sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing [56] - In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [60] Group 4: Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market Option Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar option market is presented in the relevant chart [62] Stock Market - The price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented in the relevant chart [67]