棉花（纱）市场周报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%. In the domestic market, the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang has accelerated. However, due to the drought and high - temperature in some southern Xinjiang areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price continues to rise. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton supports the cotton price, but the supply exerts pressure on the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade consultations [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41% [5]. - Market Outlook: In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang are accelerating. The yield per unit of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. The demand side indicates that downstream demand has not fully recovered, orders are insufficient, and market confidence in future demand is lacking. Cotton textile enterprises replenish inventory based on rigid demand. New cotton cost supports the price, but supply pressure restricts the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to economic and trade consultations [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: - The price of the December US cotton contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.90% [12]. - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.33% [23]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Cotton futures was - 121,428 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 120 lots [28]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,414, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [34]. - This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 1 - 5 contracts was - 10 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract was + 1,265 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract was 600 yuan/ton [46]. - Spot Market: - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,860 yuan/ton [41]. - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,475 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan/ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,660 yuan/ton [52]. - As of October 30, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was reported at 14,202 yuan/ton, an increase of 222 yuan/ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was reported at 13,368 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,061 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,117 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: JC32S was 22,930 yuan/ton [56]. - As of October 30, the estimated profit of import cotton with sliding - scale duty was 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 163 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of import cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Supply Side: - At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month, and a decrease of 43.87%. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month [64]. - In September 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [71]. - Demand Side: - As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were reported at 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [74]. - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [79]. - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were reported at 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [83]. 3.4. Options and Stock - related Markets - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is shown in the figure of the implied volatility of the underlying of the main cotton contract [84]. - Stock Market: The figure shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. [87]