苹果市场周报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of 4.38%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji ground trading has shifted to the eastern production areas, and the warehousing work is in progress. In the Shandong production area, the apple harvest time varies, the number of merchants has increased, and high - quality goods are relatively difficult to purchase. The trading of late - maturing Fuji in the western region is gradually entering the later stage. In the sales area, the trading atmosphere in the wholesale market is still dull, and the demand side continues to be under pressure. Considering the high risk of new fruit warehousing this year and the obvious price difference for high - quality fruits, it is expected that the short - term apple futures price will remain high. Attention should be paid to the cold - storage warehousing situation [4]. - The recommended trading strategy is to mainly buy long positions on dips for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.38% [4][8]. - Market Outlook: New - season late - maturing Fuji ground trading has shifted to the eastern production areas, and warehousing work is in progress. In Shandong, apple harvest times vary, and high - quality goods are hard to buy. Western trading is in the later stage, with slow warehousing in Shaanxi and almost finished in Gansu. The wholesale market in the sales area is dull, and demand is under pressure. Short - term futures prices are expected to stay high due to high warehousing risks and price differences for high - quality fruits. Monitor cold - storage warehousing [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy long positions on dips for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. - Future Trading Tips: Monitor late - maturing Fuji prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose 4.38% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 8,391 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][14]. - Spot Market: As of October 31, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade apple farmer - sourced goods in Qixia, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.35 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply Side: For the 2025/26 production season, new fruits have not been warehoused, and relevant data release is suspended [24]. - Demand Side: - As of October 30, the average daily early - morning arrival of trucks in major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) pending the new fruit harvest [28]. - As of October 24, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.53 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.26 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan per kilogram [33]. - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 fruits (Fuji, banana, grape, pear, and watermelon) was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [37]. - In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in a chart, but specific data is not given [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but specific data is not provided [44].