Huachuang Securities·2025-10-31 11:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 15.78% in the first three quarters of 2025, with continuous optimization of financial expenses, highlighting the undervalued assets with expected discrepancies [1] - The report emphasizes the significant reduction in financial expenses, which decreased by 31.9% to 428 million yuan, enhancing profits [6] - The company has secured long-term operational rights for its core profitable assets through major infrastructure projects, which are expected to improve revenue [6] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 10,362 million yuan, with a decline to 9,946 million yuan in 2025E, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [2] - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be -11.1% in 2024A, -4.0% in 2025E, 3.0% in 2026E, and 4.6% in 2027E [2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,459 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1,630 million yuan in 2025E, and further to 1,728 million yuan in 2026E [2] - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 22.9% for 2024A, 11.7% for 2025E, 6.0% for 2026E, and 8.1% for 2027E [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is expected to be 0.48 yuan in 2024A, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2025E, 0.56 yuan in 2026E, and 0.61 yuan in 2027E [2] - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 12 in 2024A to 9 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at around 0.9 to 0.8 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains profit forecasts of 1.63 billion yuan for 2025, 1.73 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.87 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.57, and 0.61 yuan [6] - The target price is set at 7.70 yuan for A-shares and 6.74 HKD for H-shares, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price [6] - The company is positioned as a growth-oriented dividend asset, with a commitment to a 60% dividend payout ratio for 2024 [6]