建信期货棉花日报-20251031

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP for the seventh time this year and will end balance - sheet reduction by the end of the year. Sino - US leaders' meeting eases trade restrictions. In the domestic market, Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, September CPI dropped 0.3% year - on - year, industrial added value rose 6.2% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month, and retail sales increased 3.0% year - on - year. The USDA halted data updates due to a government shutdown. Supply may be slightly tight in 2025/26 after the contraction of the high - yield expectation. Seed cotton acquisition costs are 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the processing progress is slower than last year. Cotton commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. In September 2025, cotton imports continued to rise month - on - month, with 680,000 tons imported from January to September, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease. In October, the textile market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. Terminal domestic textile and clothing consumption is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved after the tariff cut delay [6][57]. - Outlook: In November, during the peak processing period of Xinjiang cotton, trading may slowly rise due to a slight increase in production and hedging pressure. The acquisition price of seed cotton has rebounded, increasing processing costs and expected hedging pressure levels. Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. Market expectations for new - year cotton demand have improved [6][57]. - Strategy: Buy on dips, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads, and buy call options [6][57]. - Important Variables: Listing progress, industrial policies, and macro - policies [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main US cotton contract showed a V - shaped trend, with a 0.9% monthly decline. Due to the US government shutdown, multiple data stopped updating, and US cotton followed Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton rose after a decline in October, with a 3.4% monthly increase. The expected cotton production in the new year decreased due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang. The acquisition price of seed cotton rebounded, boosting the market, but there is still hedging pressure [10]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. US production increased by 0.2 million tons, India's ending inventory increased by 48,000 tons, China's ending inventory decreased by 229,000 tons, and Brazil remained unchanged. Globally, production increased by 231,000 tons to 2.5621 billion tons, trade volume increased by 52,000 tons to 1.9031 billion tons, consumption increased by 183,000 tons to 2.5872 billion tons, and ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 1.5924 billion tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 New - Year Production Estimate - In September 2025, the China Cotton Association predicted an increase in national cotton production. The national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the expected total output was 7.278 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. Xinjiang's output was 6.972 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase, while the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins saw output declines [17]. 3.3.2 Cotton Acquisition and Processing - As of late October, cotton picking and acquisition in Xinjiang were progressing smoothly. Due to lower - than - expected yields in southern Xinjiang, acquisition prices rose, with northern Xinjiang at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg and southern Xinjiang at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. As of October 30, 2025, the national cumulative inspection was 1.68 million tons, with 1.6636 million tons in Xinjiang [19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In mid - October, commercial cotton inventory was 1.7202 million tons, up 698,500 tons from the end of last month, and industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, down 36,200 tons. Commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. Industrial inventory decreased slightly, and yarn and fabric inventory days also decreased [23]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In September 2025, 95,000 tons of cotton were imported, a 22,300 - ton year - on - year decrease and a 22,300 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to September, 680,800 tons were imported, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprise Processing - As of October 24, spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.4 days, unchanged from last week; yarn inventory was 27.8 days, up 0.3 days; weaving mills' yarn inventory was 7.7 days, down 0.2 days; and cotton fabric inventory was 31.6 days, up 0.3 days. The yarn and fabric load indexes were 51.4% and 51.9% respectively. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was dull [30]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand - In September 2025, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 123.1 billion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.4 billion US dollars, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, cumulative exports were 221.7 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. Domestic demand is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved [46]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook The content is the same as the core views of the report [6][57].