Report Information - Report Name: "豆粕月报" [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: "升水修复，重新起航", "阶段性协议达成 豆粕谨慎偏强" [4][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: Important data such as the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans and the adjustment of the new-season yield per unit are unavailable due to the US government shutdown. Based on weather conditions, there is room for a downward adjustment of the new-season US soybean yield per unit, and the new-season US soybeans may experience a certain reduction in production. In late October, China and the US reached a phased trade agreement. If implemented as the US announced, US soybean export data is expected to return to normal levels, reducing the pressure on the ending stocks of new-season US soybeans. In Brazil, the new-season sowing is progressing orderly, with the possibility of a record-high yield. Global soybean supply is abundant due to Brazil's continuous output [7][62]. - Demand side: In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Terminal demand is relatively stable, with high inventories of pigs and laying hens. Although there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, it does not affect the short - to medium - term demand for feed. Future demand may fluctuate periodically but is generally optimistic [7][62]. - Outlook: The 01 basis of spot ran at a low level in October and is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported soybeans in China and significantly boosting the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [7][62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [7][63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [7][63] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - US: Due to the government shutdown, the October USDA report is missing. According to the September report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 acres. The harvest area is about 80.3 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 580,000 acres. The yield per unit is adjusted from 53.6 bushels to 53.5 bushels. The ending stocks of the 25/26 US soybean season are 300 million bushels. Considering the relatively low harvest area and dry weather in the main producing areas from August to September, there is a possibility of a downward adjustment of yield per unit and production [9]. - South America: The USDA maintains the production of this season's Brazilian soybeans at 169 million tons, with an expected increase to 175 million tons in the next season. The production of Argentina is 50.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.69 million tons [9]. - Growth Progress and Good - to - Excellent Rate: As of September 28, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%. As of October 24, the US soybean harvest rate was estimated to be between 80% - 88%. As of October 25, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The planting rate in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, reached 60.05% as of October 24 [10]. - Weather: The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the impact of previous weather will be reflected after the resumption of reports. The market is focusing on the weather in Brazil. Overall, the sowing progress of the new season is expected to be normal [10]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 102.1 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In September, Brazil exported 7.398 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 21.2%. ANEC expects exports in October to be around 7 million tons. After the China - US phased agreement, Brazilian soybean exports may decline to a relatively low level [17][20]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 51.03 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In July 2025, the US exported 1.751 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 17%. If China purchases US soybeans as announced, US soybean exports are expected to remain stable, but the actual situation remains to be observed [21]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Crushing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - In September, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative soybean imports were 1086.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. It is expected that this year will break the record of soybean import volume. The procurement volume in the fourth - quarter shipping period is insufficient, and the port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then gradually decrease [30][32]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Crushing and Inventory - Crushing Profit: In late October, the external CBOT soybeans fluctuated strongly, while the domestic soybean meal price was relatively weak, and the overall crushing profit weakened. As of October 30, the spot and disk crushing gross margins of Brazilian imported soybeans in November were - 207 yuan/ton and - 252 yuan/ton respectively; for US Gulf soybeans in November, the spot and disk crushing gross margins were - 237 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - Crushing Volume and Operating Rate: As of the week of October 24, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 66.39%, and the actual crushing volume was 2.0485 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate and crushing volume will decrease in the future [43]. - Soybean Inventory: As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 6.9349 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. The soybean inventory will remain high and enter the seasonal destocking stage after November [44]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Breeding 3.3.1 Trading and Inventory of Soybean Meal - As of October 24, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 940,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and future demand is generally optimistic [49]. 3.3.2 Pig Breeding - Breeding Profit: As of October 31, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the profit per purchased piglet was - 179.72 yuan/head [53]. - Pig Slaughter: From October to December this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates of pig slaughter are expected to be 3.1%, - 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively. From now until May next year, it will be basically stable or slightly increasing [53]. - Feed Production: In September, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to September 2025, the total national industrial feed production was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [54]. 3.3.3 Poultry Breeding - Broilers: At the end of October, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.26 yuan/kg, slightly stronger. The short - term market supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [58]. - Laying Hens: In October, the breeding profit continued to be weak. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [59]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The basis of spot is expected to fluctuate narrowly in November. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [63]
建信期货豆粕月报-20251031
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-31 12:02