钢材月报：预计11月份前中期震荡偏强，但趋势不改-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is expected to experience a volatile and upward trend in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month [5][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures (RB2601 and HC2601) first declined and then rebounded significantly. By the end of October, the RB2601 contract rose 34 yuan/ton or 1.11%, and the HC2601 contract rose 55 yuan/ton or 1.69% [20][21][23]. - The premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar first narrowed and then significantly widened in October, increasing from 181 yuan/ton at the end of September to 202 yuan/ton at the end of October [24][26][27]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - In October, the social inventory of rebar turned to destocking after three consecutive months of accumulation, while the social inventory of hot-rolled coil reached a high and then declined. The seasonal demand for rebar recovered significantly, while its production remained at a low level since late February. The production of hot-rolled coil was still high, but its demand had a periodic trough. As a result, the price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar first narrowed and then widened [28][29]. - Since the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has significantly declined to a new low since mid-September. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium-sized steel mills in the first and middle of October decreased compared with the same period in September but increased compared with late September. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products has generally strengthened to a new high since early May, except for a significant shrinkage in early October. The seasonal demand for steel continued to recover, leading to a significant destocking of rebar social inventory, but the social inventory of hot-rolled coil further increased due to high production and periodic low demand. It is expected that the steel demand in November may be high in the front and low in the back, and the steel price may be strong first and then weak [33][39][42]. - In the past four weeks, the production of rebar further declined, and the production of hot-rolled coil also turned to decline. The mill inventory of rebar turned to accumulation, while the mill inventory of hot-rolled coil continued to decline. This indicates that the spot market demand for rebar still needs to be improved, while the demand and supply of the hot-rolled coil market are relatively balanced. As a result, the premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar recovered to a relatively high level after narrowing in the first half of October [43][44]. - In October, the spot profits of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coil turned from profit to significant loss, the spot profit of electric furnace construction steel showed a slight expansion of the loss, and the disk profit of rebar showed a significant expansion of the loss. The main reason is that the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil first declined and then rebounded, while the spot price of iron ore continued to rise, and the spot price of coke increased twice, leading to a significant decline in the spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil. In the futures market, the steel futures rebounded after reaching a low, the iron ore futures rose again after a correction, and the coke futures rose significantly, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall disk profit of steel [45][47][49]. - Compared with January - August, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - September showed different performances. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by real estate development investment, has decreased for seven consecutive months. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by the new housing construction area, has shown a narrowing decline after a slight expansion. The demand for manufacturing machinery steel, represented by the output of metal cutting machine tools, has increased for four consecutive months. The demand for real estate-related machinery steel, represented by the output of excavators, has shown a narrowing increase after a significant expansion. The demand for hot-rolled coil, represented by automobile production, has increased from stable to expanding, and the demand for cold-rolled coil, represented by household appliance production, has declined. In November, the seasonal demand for construction steel may be high in the front and low in the back, and the demand for industrial plate steel is expected to be relatively stable, which will contribute to the rise and then fall of steel prices in November [50][54][62]. 3.3 Future Outlook - With the improvement of the low-temperature weather in most parts of the north, the terminal demand is expected to improve. Although the social inventory of steel is significantly higher than in previous years, the improvement in demand may reduce the inventory pressure. - In the raw material market, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month in the past four weeks, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected recovery of downstream steel profits, the price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The production of coke by independent coking enterprises has significantly declined recently, and the coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, leading to the third round of price increases for coke spot at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased due to the previous low-temperature weather in the north and stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year-on-year decline of more than 6% from January to September, resulting in a significant jump in the spot price of coking coal. - Against the background of the easing of the geopolitical situation, the positive expectations brought by two major industry policies, combined with the relatively stable increase in the costs of coal, coke, and ore, have led to a significant rebound in black metal commodity futures. It is expected that the steel market will continue to show a volatile and upward trend after consolidation in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect of the expected improvement in the steel market on the raw material market [63][64].