油脂油料产业日报-20251102

Report Date - The report is dated October 31, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and trending weaker. There's potential to fall below 4,200 ringgit and further to 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit due to concerns of slowing exports and increasing production. After the current decline and risk release from the MPOB report, prices may stabilize and rebound. Starting from November, decreasing production and inventory will support price increases [3] - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend. After breaking below the 8,800 yuan support, there's pressure to fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. Following the rebound of Malaysian palm oil above 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also strengthen. A near - weak, far - strong market view is maintained [3] Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher but closed lower, dragged down by the falling BMD palm oil and the decline of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is abundant and demand is weak. There's a possibility that the January contract may fall to 8,000 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rebound, Dalian soybean oil will be boosted; otherwise, the January contract may break below the integer mark [4] Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - The factory - set price of soybean meal has increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, while the near - month basis has declined. Due to falling pig prices and continuous losses in the breeding industry, downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Traders are cautious. If US soybeans are imported at the basic tariff, it will improve the supply in the first quarter of next year, but the key lies in the release of oil mill profit margins. After the price correction, there's still a chance for the price to rise [17] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 is - 46 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2; BMD palm oil主力 is 4,211 ringgit/ton, down 1.15% [5][8] - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 is 184 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12; CBOT soybean oil主力 is 49.58 cents/pound, down 1.06% [5][14] Oilseed Price and Spread - Soybean meal: The closing price of bean粕01 is 3,021 with a daily increase of 27 and a rise of 0.9%; the difference between M01 - 05 is 195 with a daily increase of 29 [18][19] - Rapeseed meal: The closing price of菜粕01 is 2,388, down 13 and - 0.54%; the difference between RM01 - 05 is 66 with a daily increase of 23 [18][19]