贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - Copper: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - Aluminum: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - Zinc: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - Nickel: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - Tin: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - Silicon: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Data: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - Driving Factors: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - Spot Data: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - Spread Data: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - Spot Data: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - Downstream Data: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - Spot Data: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - Inventory Data: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - Downstream Data: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - Inventory Data: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].