策略周报：市场热情仍高，风格或有所切换-20251102

Market Overview - The report indicates that market sentiment remains high, with a potential shift in investment style towards small-cap stocks due to high valuations and performance pressures on large-cap growth stocks [4][16] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, driven by improved Sino-U.S. relations and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13][16] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to focus on tactical operations, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) resuming government bond purchases, which is seen as a positive signal for market stability [12][14] - The report suggests a configuration value around 1.85% for bonds, recommending moderate increases near the upper range and timely profit-taking near the lower range of 1.75% [3][14] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural opportunity in the market, advising investors to focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industrial trends while being cautious of high-positioned large-cap stocks [4][16] - It highlights the potential for small-cap stocks to outperform during the earnings vacuum period in November, as funds may flow from large-cap stocks to lower-valued, more elastic small-cap targets [4][16] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, which is expected to provide a supportive liquidity environment for the market [10][14] - It also mentions that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China fell to 49.0% in October, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11][12] Performance Metrics - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a year-to-date return of 13.10%, outperforming its benchmark by 4.26% [24] - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to 23,253.35 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity [22]