Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - Leveraging Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - Negative Factors: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - Leveraging Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - Negative Factors: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251103
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-03 02:26