大越期货尿素早报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the domestic market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish [4]. - Expectation: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume is increasing. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1580 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1625 | -2 | Warehouse Receipt | 1455 | -1515 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -45 | 2 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 166.4 million tons | -17.6 million tons | | Henan Spot | 1580 | 0 | UR01 | 1625 | -2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 155.4 million tons | -7.6 million tons | | FOB China | 2666 | | UR05 | 1703 | -2 | UR Port Inventory | 11.0 million tons | -10.0 million tons | | | | | UR09 | 1736 | 1 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]