白糖早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [5][8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the long - term positive impact of the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production and the expected surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in external sugar prices, and the intensified import impact [6] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply situation. Czarnikow raised the 25/26 global sugar surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus, while ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, significantly reduced from the previous prediction. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also showed changes. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5760, and the basis for the 01 contract is 277, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5] - Main Position: The net short position increased, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, Green Pool predicted a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus. SCA Brasil estimated that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 25/26 season would be 3910 million tons, and Conab predicted 4060 million tons [8] - Domestic Supply and Demand: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a narrowing gap in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on out - of - quota imported raw sugar [8] - Import and Tariff: In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff on syrup and premixed powder was adjusted from 12% to 20% [4][8] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content