芳烃橡胶早报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: TA low processing fee has persisted for a long time, and the improving terminal data support the continuation of polyester operation. Pay attention to additional maintenance, and the processing fee center may gradually recover as far - month production is limited [2]. - MEG: EG is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase with a long - term bearish pattern, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and ratio. Focus on coal - based cost support [8]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The overall efficiency and operation of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly. Staple fiber exports remain highly increased. With acceptable spot efficiency, high operation is maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. Pay attention to opportunities to expand spreads at low prices and warehouse receipt situations [8]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. - Styrene: No clear long - term view is provided in the given data. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, crude oil increased by 0.1 to 65.1, PTA internal spot decreased by 25 to 4510, and PTA processing margin changed from 49 to 115. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2601(-70) [1][9]. - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 3 million - ton device was put into production, and some proximal TA devices reduced load with a slight decline in operation [1][2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by 25 to 740, MEG internal price decreased by 41 to 4106, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 5.8 to - 182. The basis was around 01(+76) [8]. - Device Changes: Fulian's 400,000 - ton device restarted. Proximal domestic oil - based devices restarted, and some overseas devices restarted [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: Daily changes from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 included a - 25 change in 1.4D cotton - type price, a 60 increase in low - melting - point staple fiber price, and a 10 profit increase. The spot price was around 6336, and the market basis was around 12 - 20 [8]. - Device and Operation Changes: Fujian Shanli restarted, with operation increasing to 96.8%, sales - to - production ratio weakened, and inventory remained stable. Polyester yarn operation was stable, with increased raw material inventory and finished - product inventory and slightly weakened efficiency [8]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: Daily changes on 2025/10/31 included a - 50 change in Shanghai full - latex price, a - 315 change in RU main contract price, and a - 295 change in NR main contract price. - Strategy: Due to stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup rubber price affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - Price Changes: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 750 on 2025/10/31, and benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 795 [8].