焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-3）-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Coking Coal: Downstream coking and steel enterprises have low inventories and stable demand, with high pig iron production and limited motivation for steel mills to cut production. However, due to the large increase in coal prices and pressure on profits, coking enterprises have limited room to increase production, and some have slightly reduced production, affecting the release of raw material coal demand. It is expected that coking coal prices will remain stable in the short term [2]. - Coke: Coking enterprises are facing profit pressure and are restricted by environmental protection policies, so their short - term production is on a downward trend. Downstream steel mills have a relatively high daily average pig iron production and still have some restocking needs. Some steel mills affected by environmental protection restrictions will soon lift the restrictions, and the subsequent procurement demand of steel mills is expected to pick up. Coupled with the strong support of coking coal prices at the raw material end, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The current supply in the producing areas has not increased significantly, and coal mines are strongly willing to hold prices. Coking and steel enterprises have low raw material inventories and still have restocking needs. The third round of coke price increases has started, driving up the quotes of many coal types. Online auctions have performed well with a high transaction rate. Considering the continuous tight supply of coal mines and the active transportation by downstream users, the overall market supply is still tight, and coal enterprises are still bullish on the future market [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1,390, and the basis is 104. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons. The total sample inventory is 1,895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, but the long position has decreased [3]. - Positive Factors: Pig iron production has increased, and it is difficult for supply to increase [5]. - Negative Factors: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down their procurement of raw material coal, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - Fundamentals: After two consecutive rounds of coke price increases, the loss situation of coking enterprises has improved. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the production increase space of coking enterprises is restricted, and the coking enterprise production level remains low, with the coke supply continuing to be tight [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1,710, and the basis is - 67. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 tons, port inventory is 195.1 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons. The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - Positive Factors: Pig iron production has increased, and the blast furnace operating rate has increased simultaneously [10]. - Negative Factors: The profit margin of steel mills has been squeezed, and part of the restocking demand has been overdrawn [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].