国债期货早报-20251103

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].