大越期货纯碱早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Although there is a positive factor that the daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded, overall, the market is bearish [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, with high output from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year. The supply of downstream float glass is expected to be disrupted, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Impact Factors Summary - L利多 Factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3]. - 利空 Factors: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.81% to 1225 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1170 yuan/ton, and the main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Soda Ash Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.89%. The weekly output is 75.76 tons, including 41.98 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high. Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year [18][20][5]. 6. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [24][27][5]. 7. Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].