铁矿石早报（2025-11-3）-20251103
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-03 02:42

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock state due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral to slightly positive situation considering factors such as basis, inventory, and market trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decline, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and policies on crude steel production reduction are expected. The trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 848, with a basis of 48. The spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 866, with a basis of 66. Spot prices are at a premium to futures, showing a positive situation [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, showing a positive situation [2]. - Main positions: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has decreased, showing a positive situation [2]. - Expectation: With reduced domestic demand and capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock approach is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: High hot metal production, reduced port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices leading to a stronger ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. - Negative factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6].