沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel 2512), it is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below. The overall situation is affected by macro - factors, with a long - term surplus pattern. The short - term situation is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, nickel iron price, and inventory [2]. - For Stainless Steel (Stainless Steel 2512), it is expected to operate with wide fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price has declined, and the cost line has loosened downward [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - Nickel Price: On October 31, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was at 15,250 yuan, unchanged. The spot prices of various nickel types all decreased slightly. For example, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,950 yuan, down 250 yuan [11]. - Stainless Steel Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan on October 31, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions also decreased [11]. 2. Inventory Information - Nickel Inventory: As of October 31, LME nickel inventory was 252,102 tons, an increase of 462 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,388 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. The total inventory increased by 318 tons [14]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 73,657 tons, a decrease of 120 tons [19][20]. 3. Cost Information - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on October 31 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased slightly, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged. The sea freight also remained stable [23]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,852 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,012 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,669 yuan [25]. - Nickel Import Cost: The calculated import price was 122,291 yuan/ton [28]. 4. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: The price of nickel ore is firm, which provides some support to the cost line [6]. - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [6].