沪锌期货早报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways with an upward bias" rating for SHFE Zinc ZN2512 [2][19] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw SHFE Zinc rebound sideways, closing with a positive candlestick and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more. It was a volume - shrinking rebound, indicating short - term sideways rebound potential. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ declined while in the strong zone, and the trend indicator rose, with long - side strength increasing and short - side strength decreasing, and the two sides starting to stalemate [19] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2] Basis - The spot price was 22,340, and the basis was - 15, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory - On October 31, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 650 tons to 67,774 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bearish sign [2] Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - On October 31, the total trading volume of zinc futures was 142,461 lots, with a total trading value of 1.59269604 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 211,109 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate spot TC for domestic ore was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; for imported ore, it was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions showed an upward trend [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 20 to October 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.03 tons compared to October 23 and decreased by 0.15 tons compared to October 27 [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 31, the total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 67,774 tons, an increase of 650 tons, mainly from the increase in Tianjin warrants [6] LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics - On October 31, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the previous day [7] National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 31, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all increased by 30 yuan/ton [9] National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 30 yuan/ton [12] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production value was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade ore in different regions were between 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade ore processing fee was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton [17] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2512 on October 31, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 150,088 lots, a decrease of 24,859 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 79,793 lots, a decrease of 4,230 lots, and the total short positions were 77,694 lots, a decrease of 1,393 lots [18]