PTA、MEG早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, transactions in early November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower at 01 - 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4485 - 4540. Transactions in mid - and late - November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 71, considered neutral [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4510, the basis of the 01 contract is - 76, and the futures is at a premium, considered neutral [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, considered bullish [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, considered bullish [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [5]. - Expectation: Affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was narrowly sorted out, and the spot basis weakened in the afternoon. Next - week's spot transactions fell back to a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the outer - disk center of ethylene glycol was sorted out at a low level, and recent cargo negotiations were carried out at 482 - 486 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiations. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions were 4087 - 4126 yuan/ton and 481 - 487 US dollars/ton respectively, considered neutral [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4111, the basis of the 01 contract is 93, and the futures is at a discount, considered neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period, considered bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, considered bearish [7]. - Main Position: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [6]. - Expectation: Due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: A 3 - million - ton PTA new device in East China was put into production last weekend and has now produced products [8]. - Bearish Factors: The 3.6 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials has been fully increased, and the loads of the 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical have been increased [9]. 4. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, export, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data [12]. 6. Price Data - Provides price data for PTA, MEG, and related products on October 31 and 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [13]. 7. Other Data - Also includes data on bottle - grade PET prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, as well as data on PTA and MEG basis, spreads, inventory analysis, and polyester upstream and downstream operating rates [17][18][22][29][32][41][52][56]