彭博：全球经济形势分析：美联储抑制降息预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the North American economy, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada lowering expectations for further interest rate cuts by the end of the year [6][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve plans to halt its asset reduction program starting December 1, 2025, signaling a shift in monetary policy amid tightening market conditions [10]. - The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, reflecting controlled inflation and ongoing economic expansion [8][21]. - In the Eurozone, economic growth has exceeded expectations, with France showing the strongest growth in over two years, while Germany and Italy are experiencing stagnation [24][29]. - In Asia, China aims to increase the share of consumption in its economy significantly over the next five years, reducing reliance on exports [30][32]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment in artificial intelligence as a key driver of economic growth in the U.S. amid traditional growth engines stagnating [16]. Summary by Sections North America - The Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight rate due to weak economic growth and geopolitical tensions, while maintaining that current borrowing costs are appropriate as long as growth aligns with forecasts [11][13]. - The U.S. economy's growth is considered robust, primarily driven by investments in artificial intelligence [16]. Europe - The Eurozone's inflation rate has slightly decreased but remains above 2%, justifying the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged [21]. - Business confidence in Germany has reached its highest level since 2022, indicating potential recovery from previous economic stagnation [29]. Asia - China's GDP composition is heavily skewed towards investment, with private consumption accounting for less than half of the economy [30]. - Southeast Asia has emerged as a significant source of imports for the U.S., surpassing China following the implementation of tariffs [33]. Emerging Markets - The report notes that retail gold purchases in Russia have increased significantly since 2022, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards gold as a preferred savings method [42][44].