Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, look for opportunities to short on rallies [3]. - For lead, expect the domestic and overseas lead prices to maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week. It is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic risk in the macro - environment, the tin price may decline significantly. In the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized, and strong downward support before the disturbances. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [9]. - For stainless steel, with a generally weak fundamental situation and potential price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies, look for opportunities to short on rallies [13]. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 35 to 0, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 82, and the LME inventory decreased by 325 [1]. - Market Analysis: The market is dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The overall copper price has declined, and the downstream copper开工 has further decreased. The de - stocking of inventory is slightly better than expected. Consider the impact of the tightening of scrap copper policies on scrap - refined substitution. There may be medium - scale deliveries of LME copper in the near future, and the short - term sentiment may turn calm [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory decreased by 4,594 [1]. - Market Analysis: The domestic apparent demand is good, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and there is de - stocking. Overseas supply is facing disruptions. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's policy adjustment have led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of zinc remained at - 40, the SHFE zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 400 [2]. - Market Analysis: The zinc price has oscillated upward. The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward, and the domestic mining supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and there has been some delivery overseas [2]. Nickel - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 350, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. - Market Analysis: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventories at home and abroad are continuously increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end [3]. Lead - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of lead remained at - 210, the social inventory decreased by 334, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,875 [7]. - Market Analysis: The lead price has declined due to downstream production cuts. The supply of secondary lead is recovering slowly, and the demand for batteries is weakening. The supply - demand mismatch is serious, and the spot is still in short supply [7]. Tin - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the LME C - 3M of tin changed from 100 to 40, and the LME inventory increased from 2,725 to 2,875 [7][8]. - Market Analysis: The tin price has oscillated. The processing fee at the mining end is at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas production is still uncertain, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity [8]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 157 [9]. - Market Analysis: The production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 550, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 550, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 [9]. - Market Analysis: The overseas mining end is firm in price - holding, the market supply of concentrated ore is tight, and the lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell. The downstream is mostly on the sidelines, and the buying is strong after the price correction on Friday [9]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 50 [13]. - Market Analysis: The steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policies may support the price [13].
永安期货有色早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-03 03:14