工业硅期货早报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling is increasing and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery remains low, but cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 9000 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and the demand-side shows a continuous decline in production across silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with overall demand in a continuous recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 55620 - 57200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining sluggish [6]. - Cost: The cost support has increased during the dry season. The production of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is in a loss of 3144 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The total social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [6]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Position: The net position of the main contract is short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month; last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week, and currently, production is in a loss. In November, the scheduled production of battery cells is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month; in November, the expected component production is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70%. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 37,990 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,010 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 31, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -4160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Position: The net position of the main contract is long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 9100 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous day [14]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [14]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises was 48,725 tons, a 2.36% decrease from the previous week [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts increased, with the 01 contract at 56,410 yuan/ton, a 2.66% increase from the previous day [16]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly inventory of silicon wafers was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of photovoltaic battery cells was 59.27GW, a 2.79% decrease from the previous month; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of components was 48.1GW, a 3.61% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70% [16].