大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, with the predicted production in the next month rising by 3.01% to 89,890 tons and the import volume increasing by 12.26% to 22,000 tons. The demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged daily, lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. - The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - The overall situation shows a mismatch between production capacity, leading to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,979 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,890 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, and the cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged [9][11]. - Price: The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral. The cost of external spodumene concentrate has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of external lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Neutral [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 127,358 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 32,051 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.83%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 53,288 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.59%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 42,020 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%, lower than the historical average. Neutral [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases. Bearish [11].