大越期货PVC期货早报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. - The overall cost of PVC is weakening, with the cost of calcium carbide method weakening and that of ethylene method strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply side: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of planned overhauls is expected to decrease next week, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - Cost side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2313.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - Basis: On October 31, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4680 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral [9]. - Market trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [9]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, and that of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including price changes of different contracts, inventory changes, downstream operating rates, profit and cost data of different production methods, and other information [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It shows the basis trend, futures price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium carbide method - related aspects: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32]. - PVC supply trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and overhaul volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [40][42]. - Demand trend: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of different PVC products, as well as real - estate and infrastructure - related data [44][46][49]. - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts and factory inventories of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. - Ethylene method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [58][59]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly data of PVC export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].