大越期货豆粕早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases but restricted by uncertain purchase volume and good harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal is also affected by these factors and the demand off - season, thus maintaining an oscillating pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but restricted by high import volume and domestic production increase expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also decrease from a high level. Affected by normal harvest weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal will return to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is affected by both US soybean trends and the demand off - season [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the Sino - US trade agreement, the soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for clear US soybean production and further trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Negative Factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in November in China, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Positive Factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and rising domestic soybean demand expectations support prices [15]. - Negative Factors: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From October 23 to October 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, with daily trading volumes between 5.35 and 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2470 and 2530, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From October 23 to October 31, the futures prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal showed certain fluctuations, while the spot prices of soybean No.1 remained stable at 4100, and the spot price of soybean meal rose from 2910 to 2970 [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From October 22 to October 31, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts increased from 7090 to 7238 [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: From 2015 to 2024, the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets showed changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuating [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: In 2023/24, the planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans, in 2024, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans, in 2024/25, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, in 2025, the harvest progress of US soybeans, and in 2025/26, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans are all presented [33][34][38][40][41]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, and ending inventory, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - View: The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [9]. - Strategy: No specific strategy content provided. Soybeans - View: The short - term US soybean market is affected by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by cost - performance advantages but restricted by import volume and production increase expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160 [11]. - Strategy: No specific strategy content provided.