白糖周报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones, possibly due to the impact of typhoons on production in Guangxi [4]. - The global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new year. Short - term external sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones [4]. - As of the first half of October in the current crushing season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar production reached 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Likely Positive Factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Global sugar production increase, expected surplus in the new year, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 - 7.5 million tons, etc. [34] - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, the consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Import Data: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][7] - Production and Consumption Data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.