大越期货菜粕早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors also influence the market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2400 - 2460 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the market affected by soybean meal and waiting for the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping result. The basis is positive as the spot price is higher than the futures price. Inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is positive. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving down, considered neutral. The main long positions are decreasing with capital outflow, and the short - term outlook is a return to the oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and the geopolitical conflict in Russia and Ukraine may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 23rd to October 31st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2470 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices and spot prices had different trends, with futures prices showing a bottom - up trend and spot prices relatively stable. Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 on October 22nd to 2955 on October 31st [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically elaborated in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The view is that rapeseed meal will oscillate in the 2400 - 2460 range. The strategy is to pay attention to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and China - Canada trade relations [9].