棉花周报（10.27-10.31）-20251103

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. Positive news from China-US negotiations and previous price over - decline led to price recovery. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. After a round of rebound, the futures main contract 01 is consolidating in the short - term between 13,500 - 13,700 [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to ICAC's September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons. According to USDA's September report, the output in the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report on the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Slightly increased purchase price of seed cotton and year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [7]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September): In the 2025/26 season, the global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China: In the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.