橡胶：多单持有

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold long positions on rubber futures [1][2][8] Core Viewpoints - The market is dominated by sentiment this week, with prices rising and then falling without breaking through the technical resistance level. The natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish, and the price correction this week is not a new downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2][3][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 opened at 15330, reached a high of 15670, a low of 15030, and closed at 15085, with a decline of 1.63%. NR2512 opened at 12480, reached a high of 12770, a low of 12190, and closed at 12230, with a decline of 2.2%. BR2512 opened at 11100, reached a high of 11155, a low of 10525, and closed at 10585, with a decline of 4.81%. The natural rubber market rose and then fell this week, and the price failed to break through the technical resistance level, with sentiment dominating the trend [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The quoted price of 2023 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 14800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The quoted price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2050 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week. The quoted price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 10925 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from last week [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 1425 tons to 162025 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 3120 tons to 120990 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week due to the decline in futures prices and the rise in spot prices [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The price rose and then fell this week without breaking through the technical resistance level. The prices of Thai raw materials rose across the board this week, with a large increase in latex. The operating rate of tire enterprises declined slightly. In terms of tire enterprise inventories, the semi - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, and the all - steel tire inventory decreased. The release of the 14th Five - Year Plan in China and the expected easing of Sino - US trade conflicts drove market sentiment, but the final trade agreement was lower than market expectations, causing financial asset prices to fall. The natural rubber market fluctuated with the market, rising first and then falling. The market was dominated by sentiment last week, and the natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish. The domestic visible inventory continued to decrease, and the operating rate of tire enterprises was at a high level. The price correction this week is not a new downward trend, and a bullish view on the future market is maintained, suggesting to continue holding long positions [7][8]