大越期货纯碱周报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is abundant, with stable operation of plants, few maintenance enterprises, and expected continuous increase in supply. The downstream demand is average, with large capital pressure. As of October 30, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,225 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, up 12.24% [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 101.70 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method was - 203 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%, and the weekly output was 757,600 tons, including 419,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - alkalization rate was 55.41% [20][22][24]. - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production plans this year. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [5][25]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 99.78% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% was stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 89,300 tons, an increase of 650 tons from the previous week [31]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak maintenance season is approaching this year, and the output is expected to decline [4]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level; the production of downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [5][7]. 3.7 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].