大越期货PVC期货周报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. [5][6][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract declined this week, opening at 4,708 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 4,701 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.14%. [5] - Supply Side: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.70%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, while that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. [5] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 37.83% (up 0.96 percentage points, below the historical average), 42% (up 0.799 percentage points, below the historical average), and 71.79% (down 0.70 percentage points, above the historical average) respectively. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 18.93 percentage points, above the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish. [5] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,313.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [6] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%, with the calcium carbide factory inventory at 252,368 tons (up 0.10% month - on - month) and the ethylene factory inventory at 85,600 tons (up 4.77% month - on - month). The social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level. [6] 2. PVC Futures Market - Price and Volume: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Relevant price and trading volume data are presented in the charts, including opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume and moving average data. [13][56] - Basis and Spread: The report provides charts of the basis trend, the spread analysis of the main contract, and other relevant content, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text. [10][16] 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the analysis of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., including their price trends, cost - profit situations, operating rates, production, and inventory changes over the years. [19][22][24][26][29] - Supply and Demand Trends: - Supply: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly PVC production, maintenance volume, etc., over the years. [31][33] - Demand: It includes indicators such as daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rates of PVC, as well as the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) and the cost - profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment and construction data and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment growth rate. [36][37][39][41][43][45] - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days over the years. [47] - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and relevant price spreads. [49] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data. [52] 4. Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected that next week it may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. [57]