Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume, mainly affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price remained firm, the nickel iron price continued to decline, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Views and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel View: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price declined, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - Operation Strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices (red clay nickel ore with different grades) remained unchanged compared to last week. The price of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate also remained unchanged. The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same, while the high - nickel iron price decreased by 0.53%. The price of electrolytic nickel (Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price) decreased, and the 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 0.36% [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and the freight remained the same as last week. As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.26%. The imported nickel ore volume in September 2025 decreased by 3.66% month - on - month but increased by 33.91% year - on - year. The northern Philippines had a tender with a firm price, and the rainy season in Surigao was approaching [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume. In the long - term, the supply and demand will both increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary materials in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volume also changed, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in September 2025 compared to the previous month. The LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][26][30]. - Nickel Iron Market Conditions - The nickel iron price declined. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The nickel iron import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in September 2025 was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - Stainless - Steel Market Conditions - The 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In September 2025, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with an increase in the 300 - series production. The import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the national stainless - steel inventory increased by 370 tons [59][65][71]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%. In September 2025, the total battery production was 151.2 GWh, and the power battery loading volume was 76.0 GWh [75][78]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. During the price decline this week, there was obvious position - increasing, and position - reducing occurred around 120,000. The MACD direction was not clear, and the KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area [81]. 4. Industry Chain Sorting Summary - Fundamental View - Nickel ore: Neutral, with stable quotes, flat freight, and the approaching rainy season. - Nickel iron: Neutral, with a stable - to - decreasing price and a certain decline in the cost line. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish, with the long - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged and continuous inventory build - up at home and abroad. - Stainless - steel: Neutral, with a slight increase in inventory. - New energy: Neutral, with good production data and a year - on - year increase in ternary battery loading [84]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].
沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251103
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:30