钢矿周报（10.27-10.31）-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - One - week Data Changes: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - One - week Data Changes: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - Operating Rates: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - Production Volumes: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - Profits: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - Inventories: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - Trading Volumes: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].