Group 1: U.S. Market Insights - The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%[13] - Despite the rate cut, the Fed's forward guidance remains hawkish, indicating potential caution in future rate decisions[9] - The Nasdaq index initially reached historical highs but faced a significant decline due to concerns over tech companies' capital expenditures impacting short-term profitability[10] Group 2: China Market Developments - China's macroeconomic data shows resilience, with the October PMI slightly below the critical point at 49.0%, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing sentiment[12] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, continuing a recovery trend[11] - U.S.-China trade negotiations made progress, with the U.S. agreeing to lift certain tariffs on Chinese goods and suspend some export controls for one year[12] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - Japan's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation pressures[14] - The European Central Bank kept key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing the need for patience amid global trade uncertainties[16] - Major European stock indices experienced declines as market sentiment turned cautious, influenced by economic growth disparities within the region[16] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A multi-asset FOF portfolio is recommended, with allocations of 60% in equities, 30% in fixed income, and 10% in commodities, targeting a 37% annualized return[37] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced asset allocation strategy, incorporating gold to hedge against potential market volatility due to the Fed's rate cuts and a weakening dollar[42]
宏观周报（2025/10/27-10/31）：美联储降息落地但后续指引偏鹰，中美经贸磋商达成共识-20251103
Guoxin Securities Hongkong·2025-11-03 05:24