《黑色》日报-20251103

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Steel apparent demand has recovered, especially for plate products, and the inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The main focus in the later stage is on coking coal. Considering the positive macro - environment, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be supported at 3000 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively. Upward momentum requires continuous increase in apparent demand or production cuts on the supply side. The price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3400 yuan respectively. When prices rise to the upper limit of the range, long positions can be partially closed, and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be continued [2]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of decline. Costs and profits vary, with some profit margins decreasing and some increasing. For example, the price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 27 yuan [2]. - Production and Inventory: The daily average pig iron output increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, iron ore fluctuated and rose. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side indicates that the steel mill's profit margin declined, and the pig iron output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. The inventory at ports continued to accumulate, and the demand for restocking by steel mills weakened. After the iron ore rebounded, the driving force weakened. The strategy is to close long positions and turn to a wait - and - see approach, with the price range referring to 760 - 830 yuan, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is the iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 yuan, a 0.9% decrease [4]. - Supply and Demand: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a 19.5% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [4]. - Inventory Changes: The port inventory increased by 231.3 to 14542.48 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The coal market is in a tight supply - demand pattern. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1200 - 1350 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the futures also fluctuated and rose last week, and the third - round price increase by coke enterprises is expected to be implemented. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1700 - 1850 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is also long coking coal and short coke [7]. Summary by Directory - Coking Coal and Coke - related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1787 yuan, a 0.54% decrease, and the coke 01 contract was at 1777 yuan [7]. - Supply and Demand: The production of coking coal decreased in some areas due to safety and environmental protection reasons. The coke production remained stable, and the pig iron output decreased. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coking coal inventory in different sectors also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7].