大越期货沥青期货早报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, unchanged from the previous month [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [7]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 14 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All inventories are decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20. It is bearish [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. It is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; crude oil is weakening, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,222 - 3,266 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [10]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of 01 - 06 contracts all decreased to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from - 0.09% to - 0.76% [14]. - Basis: The basis of each contract also changed, with some showing significant fluctuations [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory all decreased, with decreases of - 6.77%, - 3.52%, and - 33.33% respectively [14]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output increased by 0.72% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment increased by 13.98% month - on - month [14]. - Profits: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 2.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit decreased by 13.47% month - on - month [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spreads: The historical trends of spreads between 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown [19][20] - Asphalt - crude oil price trends: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [22][23] - Crude oil cracking spreads: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [25][26][27] - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trends: The historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented [35][36] - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The historical trends of coking - asphalt profit spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [38][40] - Supply - side: - Shipment volume: The historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 are presented [41][42] - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown [43][44] - Output: The historical trends of weekly and monthly output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The historical trends of Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown [49][51] - Refinery asphalt output: The historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [52][53] - Capacity utilization rate: The historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented [55][56] - Maintenance loss estimate: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2025 are shown [57][58] - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [60][62][63] - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented [64][65] - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented [67][68] - Import and export situation: - Export and import trends: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented [70][71] - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: The historical trends of South Korean asphalt import spreads from 2020 to 2025 are presented [73][74] - Demand - side: - Petroleum coke output: The historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [76][77] - Apparent consumption: The historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented [79][80] - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [82][83] - New local special bond trends: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [84] - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: The historical trends from 2020 to 2024 are presented [84] - Downstream machinery demand trends: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented [86][88] - Excavator monthly working hours trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [90] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [91][92] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented [94][95] - Downstream capacity utilization situation: - Capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [96][97][99] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [101][102]