大越期货原油周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although China and the US, the two largest oil - consuming countries, have reached an agreement, it cannot reverse the supply - demand imbalance in the crude oil market or prevent oil prices from approaching the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. The market is still evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Venezuela, may impact oil prices. Short - term oil prices are more affected by geopolitical events. For trading, short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil fluctuated. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 0.91% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.58 per barrel, down 0.52% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 463.6 yuan per barrel, down 0.28% for the week. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and concerns about supply surplus pressured oil prices. There were also geopolitical events like the potential US strike on Venezuela and the easing of Sino - US relations, which made the oil price fluctuate [3]. - The World Bank predicts that the global crude oil daily supply surplus may reach 4 million barrels in 2026. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a daily supply surplus of 1.9 million barrels in the global crude oil market, and OPEC+ has been increasing production quotas, adding to the supply pressure [4]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners have suspended Russian crude oil purchases [4]. - The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed cooled on Friday, and the three major US stock indexes narrowed their gains [4]. 3.2 Related News - There were reports about the potential US military strike on Venezuela, which first pushed up oil prices but then prices fell after the White House's denial [3]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners' purchasing decisions were affected [4]. - Fed officials' statements on interest rates affected the market's expectation of a December rate cut [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The agreement between China and the US cannot change the supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The market is evaluating the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela remains tense. Short - term oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. Short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Weekly Prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased. For example, UK Brent Dtd increased by 2.25 to 87.41, with a growth rate of 2.65% [7]. - Inventory Data: EIA inventory and Cushing inventory data showed fluctuations. For example, EIA inventory decreased by 685.8 barrels to 41596.6 barrels on October 24, and Cushing inventory increased by 133.4 barrels to 2256.5 barrels on the same date [9][10]. 3.5持仓数据 - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: As of September 23, the net long positions increased by 4249 contracts to 102958 contracts [3][19]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: As of October 21, the net long positions decreased by 57085 contracts to 52521 contracts [21].