大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract opened at 80,000 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 80,780 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.97% [4]. - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,904 tons, a 2.04% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,881 tons, a 0.34% decrease; salt lake production was 3,247 tons, a 0.62% increase; and recycling production was 2,048 tons, a 1.59% increase [4]. - Demand Side: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% increase from the previous month. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% increase. The export volume in September was 151 tons, a 59.07% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 14.57% increase [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,623 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of 1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 85,678 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 8,291 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was close to the ore - end cost, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 42,020 tons, a 1.47% increase, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The report presents long - term trends of lithium ore prices, production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China, and monthly imports of lithium concentrate from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025, with fluctuations in the balance [18]. 3.2.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: It shows the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) from 2018 - 2025 [20]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 shows that the demand, export, import, production, and balance vary monthly [25]. 3.2.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: It presents the weekly capacity utilization, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) from 2018 - 2025 [28]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 shows changes in demand, export, import, production, and balance [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit Analysis: It analyzes the cost - profit of various lithium compounds, including purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide processing [34][36][39]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Inventory Trends: It shows the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories from different sources from 2021 - 2025 [41]. 3.2.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Cost: It presents the price trends, monthly production, and cost of lithium batteries from 2021 - 2025 [45]. 3.2.7 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Production, and Supply - Demand Balance: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from 2018 - 2025 [50][53]. 3.2.8 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Production, and Inventory: It presents the price, cost - profit, production, processing fee, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials from 2020 - 2025 [56][58]. 3.2.9 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Production, and Cost - Profit: It shows the price, cost, profit, production, capacity, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium from 2019 - 2025 [60][63]. 3.2.10 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Inventory: It presents the production, sales, export, sales penetration, zero - batch ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles from 2019 - 2025 [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. Based on the chart of the LC main contract, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].