工业硅期货周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - Inventory: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - Cost - Sample Region Trends: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - Aluminum Alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - Polysilicon: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - Polysilicon (PS): The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].