豆粕周报：中美贸易谈判初步协议，豆粕震荡回升-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean: In the short - term, US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [11]. - Soybean Meal: Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rising, driven by the US soybean trend. However, the short - term demand slump and the spot price discount limit the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations, the harvest weather in the US, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips The document does not mention specific weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean meal market is oscillating moderately strongly in the short term and will return to the range - bound pattern in the medium term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decrease in November, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will remain high. The demand for soybean meal in November is weak, but the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Positive Factors: The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Negative Factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in November; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Positive Factors: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Negative Factors: After the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, China starts to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the soybean price [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Report in the Past Six Months It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 [22]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 The report details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, as well as the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [23][24][25]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress It includes the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season [26][27][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis US soybeans are oscillating and rising due to the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, but the bumper harvest of US soybeans limits the upward space. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Arrival of Imported Soybeans: The arrival of imported soybeans in November is decreasing from a high level, and the year - on - year overall shows an increase [37]. - Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high, the soybean meal inventory has a slight increase, the soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal production in September increases year - on - year [38][40]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The downstream procurement has a slight decrease, and the pick - up volume is decreasing from a high level [45]. - Pig Farming Inventory: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and started to rise recently, and the profit of pig farming has improved [47][49][53]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis: The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has a slight increase [58]. - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in an oscillatory state, and the soybean futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new market guidance [65]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in an oscillatory and rebound stage, and the upward space is limited. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71][72]. - Second - Most Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [73].