原油成品油早报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil maintained a volatile trend this week. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela led to a rise in oil prices, and on Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in December. With short - term geopolitical risks emerging again, but significant pressure on crude oil supply release due to factors like Brazil's P78投产, OPEC's further production increase, and high US total production, the crude oil market maintains a weak pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily News - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ members will approve a small production increase in December, restoring about 137,000 barrels per day of suspended production, consistent with the previous small - scale production increase in October and November [3]. - Peskov stated that there is no immediate need for a "Putin - Trump meeting" and that the details need careful preparation [4]. - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending October 31 was 414, down from 420 in the previous week [4]. - US media reported that the US is about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing international oil prices to soar. Venezuela's current oil export volume is about 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [4]. - Indian Oil Corporation bought 5 cargoes of Russian ESPO crude for December delivery from non - sanctioned entities at a price close to the Dubai quote [5]. Inventory - In the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day [5]. - US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24 [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62% [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% in the week ending October 24 [5]. - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels in the week ending October 24, compared with an expected decrease of 1.903 million barrels and a previous decrease of 2.147 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels in the week ending October 24, compared with an expected decrease of 1.735 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.479 million barrels [5]. - From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic major refineries decreased, while that of local refineries increased slightly. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both major and local refineries declined [6]. Weekly View - In the first 26 days of October, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports were 1.89 million barrels. Preliminary data from Kpler showed that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a decrease of 460,000 barrels per day month - on - month and an increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year [6]. - This week, the total global on - land oil inventory increased slightly, while the total floating storage inventory decreased slightly. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US rebounded [6].